Good morning!
POLL OF POLLS: The big news of this week is the Liberal Democrats “leaking” an exclusive insight into their canvassing returns with postal voters which show them just 10 points behind the Conservtives in a seat where they got just 10% of the vote in the 2019 General Election.
COMPARE: In the Chesham & Amersham by-election campaign they produced the exact same figures two weeks before voting and it shows that they’re in much better shape this time round, with the usual caveat that we don’t know how genuine this data is.
KEEP IT GOING: Looking back upon the C&A campaign, it is widely understood that the last week of the election was what truly shifted wavering Conservatives voters in vast swathes, and we can assume that Liberal Democrat HQ is expecting something similar.
OLD BEXLEY IS OVER: With Old Bexley & Sidcup over and done with we’ll have to see if Labour bothers putting any resources towards the North Shropshire campaign. The Financial Times in a piece on the two by-elections thinks no, with Labour strategists having told them that North Shropshire is “inhospitable terrain for the party and not worth spending scarce resources on.” Chesham & Amersham at least got a Angela Rayner visit on polling day so we’ll see how this goes here.
AWKWARD: David Hallam, former MEP for Shropshire and Hereford, has produced some interesting videos on Twitter explaining why Labour truly are the 2nd place challenger against the Tories. In another tweet he claims that “the Tories and Lib Dems… seem to be keeping their candidates under wraps.” with a hilarious addition of images.
OVER IT: In an article for the Border Counties Advertizer, former Wrexham MP and close 2nd in North Shropshire in the 1997 General Election, explains why he thinks voters should back the Labour candidate. As a part of this he makes it very clear that he’s over his loss “We could have taken the seat in 1997 if people hadn't been misled into supporting the Liberal Democrats who came third, but took enough votes to deny me victory.” You just have to hope this ages well.
HUST YOU WAIT: An exciting husting is taking place at the Eastern Oswestry Community Centre next Monday at 7.45pm. The topic of discussion is the climate crisis.
WATCH OUT: The Spectator wrote about the contest this week. “'Peppa Pig has come up more than sleaze,' says a Lib Dem source, in reference to Boris Johnson's rambling speech to the CBI earlier this month. There are also local issues at play — with anger over the ambulance services — and questions over the Tory candidate who is based in Birmingham.”
TREE BIEN: Green Party candidate, Duncan Kerr, spoke to Elections Daily this week where he sells his candidacy. The question of what is a win for the party stood out particularly to me: “The minimum for us is to come third and double our vote share.”
TABLOIDS: The Liberal Democrats are in the process of fundraising for a tabloid leaflet which will go out to voters charting the key points of their campaign, that their candidate is local, that they care about farmers and that they’ll fix the NHS. Keep an eye out for Tory Twitter outrage on the use of newspaper-style literature, their campaign has been doing it too.
JUST A COINCIDENCE: Tory MPs Suzanne Webb and Jane Stevenson were down in the constituency this week, I presume they’re wishing their best for their Birmingham-based candidate.
BIG VISIT: This weekend, Ed Davey will be making his 4th visit to the constituency… and Vince Cable his first. Hopefully nobody feels too passionate about confronting genocide denial.
WHAT THE BOOKIES ARE SAYING: The 4th week of the campaign sees the Liberal Democrats surging, Conservatives shrinking and everyone else falling far behind (As of 23:00, 02/12/21).
LADBROKES: The Conservatives are on 2/5, Liberal Democrats 7/4, Labour 33/1, Reform UK 50/1 and Greens 200/1.
SKYBET: The Conservatives are on 2/5, Liberal Democrats 7/4, Labour 33/1, Reform UK 50/1 and Greens 200/1.
WILLIAM HILL: The Conservatives are on 2/5, Liberal Democrats 7/4, Labour 50/1, Reform UK 66/1 and Greens 150/1.
SBK: The Conservatives are on 1/2, Liberal Democrats 16/9, Labour 249/1, Reform UK 299/1 and Greens 199/1.
SMARKETS: The Conservatives are on 4/9, Liberal Democrats 17/10, Labour 244/1, Reform UK 293/1 and Greens 195/1.
SMARKETING: Speaking of the bookies, they’ve been having a bit of fun this week.
This one is from Smarkets:
And this from Ladbrokes: