Guten morgen
WE’RE NEARLY THERE: With just 6 days to go until the by-election showdown of a century, this week has really kicked off in terms of news. The fight for 2nd place has reared its head once again, the Tories have set their expectations low and betting odds have made me angry.
THE EARLY THIRD: Let’s start with David Hallam. Previously reported in this newsletter for making odd videos, he has returned for Twitter controversy by publishing “polling data” that shows the Conservatives on 40%, Labour on 33%, the Lib Dems on 11% and Reform on just 7%. Acting as the press officer for the Labour operation in North Shropshire, we can safely assume that these numbers are Labour’s canvassing data.
QUESTION TIME: As I raised on the Twitter account for By-election Bonanza, this data clashes entirely with the comments of the Labour candidate Ben Wood who said in an interview with Elections Daily that his team has only spoken to one person considering voting Lib Dem. How this 11% translates to 1 voter suggests that one of them is lying. I asked David Hallam for comment but received nothing back. I think it highlights an issue in the fight for who is truly the challenger, a lack of transparency over data creates distrust in its credibility, the fact that it is presented as “polling” doesn’t help either. This applies both to the Liberal Democrats and Labour, although it is interesting to note that I think this is the first time Labour has done this sort of thing in a by-election. Anyways, we’ll evidently get to see who is correct on Thursday, much to the embarrassment of whoever is wrong.
NOT ANOTHER ONE: Last Saturday brought forward more internal polling, this time from the Liberal Democrats who report a much closer race. The Tories are on 44%, Lib Dems on 38%, Labour on 11% and Other on 6%. One side will be truly shocked on Thursday. Another thing to keep in mind is that these canvassing returns remove those who ‘Won’t say’, limiting our understanding of what will be a sizeable chunk of the electorate.
MAKE IT STOP: Let’s not ignore the pop-up poll presented by the Green Party candidate in Whitchurch last Friday. Unsurprisingly this showed the most support for the Greens, with the Tories a distant 4th. Now that’ll be a shake-up.
BJ in NS: The Prime Minister himself, Boris Johnson, made his first visit to the constituency last Friday, highlighting concern within the Conservative campaign about their declining support. BoJo visited Oswestry. Johnson was met with a ”chorus of boos” during his visit where he stated that the people of North Shropshire shouldn’t judge Dr Shastri-Hurst, the Tory candidate, by that of his disgraced predecessor. Well, at least he got his name right this time because in this exact same visit he called his party’s candidate Dr Shastri-Hughes. The Oswestry and Border Counties Advertizer has a great live blog on the visit if you want to rekindle memories of last Friday.
RR: Reform UK and the Reclaim Party have both seen political excitement over the past week as each have gained a councillor by defection in the Shropshire County Council. Conservative councillor Anothony Allen is Reclaim’s first councillor and left the Tories due to them having gone woke over immigration and taxation. Mark Whittle, who joined Reform, seemed to take issue over the fact that the Conservative candidate had “zero knowledge of North Shropshire”.
WATERMELON: Chairman of the Selattyn and Gobowen Parish Council and Labour member has defected to the Greens. "There has never been a better time to join the growing number who realise that to get real change you need to vote Green.” Read more here.
HE DOESN’T EVEN GO HERE: The Independent reports that “Senior Conservative Party officials have ordered the party’s… by-election candidate not to speak to media amid concerns he knows so little about the area”. This falls back onto a very early story from the by-election in which Shastri-Hurst mixed up the name of the town he was in.
DON’T FBPE: The Liberal Democrat candidate, Helen Morgan, has had to once again apologise for making comparisons to the Nazis. She stated that the Home Secretary should tear up her copy of “Goebbels’ manual” which attracted outrage from Tory MPs online. This follows her previous statements that refugees in the UK were being held in “concentration camps” and that the attempt to prorogue Parliament 2 years ago was like “what Hitler did in 1933”.
DEFINETLY DON’T FBPE: The RejoinEU Party, which seeks to see Britain… rejoin the EU, has released a god awful video of their candidate (who is a Boris Johnson impersonator, but not even a good one). Watch if you would like to cringe.
WINNING HERE: The Liberal Democrats have received the endorsement of both the Guardian and the Mirror. I don’t know the distribution of the two media outlets in such a Tory-stronghold like North Shropshire is but they’re there to help your Twitter arguments.
STINGING: The Liberal Democrats have published their most recent leaflet in the constituency, it’s taking national issues directly to the heart of the campaign.
This shows some of the cut through:
OSWESTRY TROUBLES: Insiders from the Liberal Democrat campaign are most concerned that the largest town in the constituency, Oswestry, could prove trouble in preventing them from winning. A hot bed of Labour and Green support, the worry is that their message of them being the best challenger won’t cut through. This letter from Helen Morgan to Oswestry voters seems to reflect this:
WHAT THE BOOKIES ARE SAYING: In the 5th week of the campaign, the Liberal Democrats have stormed ahead of the Conservatives. (As of 22:00, 09/12/21)
LADBROKES: The Conservatives are on 1/1, Liberal Democrats 4/5, Labour 50/1, Reform UK 200/1 and Greens 200/1.
SKYBET: The Conservatives are on 1/1, Liberal Democrats 4/5, Labour 50/1, Reform UK 150/1 and Greens 200/1.
WILLIAM HILL: The Conservatives are on 19/20, Liberal Democrats 4/5, Labour 40/1, Reform UK 150/1 and Greens 500/1.
SBK: The Conservatives are on 1/2, Liberal Democrats 16/9, Labour 249/1, Reform UK 299/1 and Greens 999/1.
SMARKETS: The Conservatives are on 1/1, Liberal Democrats 10/11, Labour 136/1, Reform UK 146/1 and Greens 979/1.
P.S. Betting odds are fake and if you use them to indicate political strength then I will seriously question your judgement.